# One-Stage Probability In Real Life

Before viewing this page, it would be helpful to first read One-Stage Probability in Gambling.

## Example - When Your Number's Up

Published in Oxford University medical journal Bandolier, the table below shows the risk of death with age in the United Kingdom.

Examples:

• A male under 1 year has a risk of dying of 1 in 177 or 0.0056.
• A male between 75 and 84 years of age has a risk of dying of 1 in 15 or 0.07
 ANNUAL DEATH RISK IN UK ( 1 in x ) MEN WOMEN Under 1 yr 177 227 1 - 4 yr 4386 5376 5 - 14 yr 8333 10417 15 - 24 yr 1908 4132 25 - 34 yr 1215 2488 35 - 44 yr 663 1106 45 - 54 yr 279 421 55 - 64 yr 112 178 65 - 74 yr 42 65 75 - 84 yr 15 20 ALL AGES 136 193

Q1. What is your risk of dying?
Q2. What is the "safest" gender and age to be alive?
Q3. What is the "riskiest" age and gender? Why do you think this is?
Q4. Do men or women have the highest risk of dying? Why do you think this is?
Q5. Old Mary's risk of dying is 0.05. How old is she?
Q6. How would this information affect your life?

A1.

A2. 5-14 yr women

A3. 75-84 yr men

A4. Men

A5. 75-84 yr

A6. Insurance premiums are based on probabilities.

## Questions - Cyber Crime

Q1. According to Carnegie Mellon University's Cylab, approximately 10.2% (about 110) of US children who wrote their personal details on social networking sites and e-mails will be the victims of identity theft. If there are 1000 students in your school, how many students may have their identities stolen?

Q2. A 2006 Harris Interactive survey found that 43% (more than 25) of US teenagers have been cyber-bullied by e-mails, chat rooms or text messages. Cyber-bullying is a federal crime. If there are 1000 students in your school, how many students may have been cyber-bullied?